Seleção e tradução de Júlio Marques Mota
Por Frank van Lerven e outros
Publicado por 
em 15 de Junho de 2021 (ver aqui)
Ao contrário do argumento apresentado por Wolfgang Schäuble (Opinião, 3 de Junho), pensamos que o tecido social da Europa não pode suportar um regresso ao “orçamental como habitual” – as políticas de austeridade falhadas do passado que transformaram o choque financeiro de 2008 numa recessão prolongada. Precisamos de uma nova abordagem à política orçamental, começando com o reconhecimento de que despesa pública muito reduzida pode causar danos sociais, económicos e ambientais irreversíveis.
Quando o sector privado está em dificuldade, a “disciplina orçamental” pode provocar uma queda permanente da procura e da produção agregada, o que sufoca desnecessariamente o emprego e os rendimentos das famílias, ao mesmo tempo que deixa as gerações futuras em pior situação.
A experiência mais recente da Europa de consolidação orçamental falhou nos seus próprios termos, resultando em rácios mais elevados da dívida em relação ao produto interno bruto, devido a cicatrizes económicas permanentes e às reduções associadas nas receitas fiscais.
A disciplina orçamental , e não a expansão, alarga o fosso entre ricos e pobres (particularmente numa recessão). Impostos regressivos e cortes profundos nas despesas na Europa desmantelaram medidas que apoiam o crescimento equitativo, resultando em níveis mais elevados de pobreza e desigualdade. Os cortes no investimento público também minam a “transição justa” e a luta contra a degradação ambiental e podem conduzir a um vasto leque de perdas financeiras relacionadas com o ambiente.
Uma década de estímulos monetários não convencionais e objetivos de inflação falhados não conseguiram claramente aumentar as expectativas de inflação, indicando que as preocupações do próprio autor sobre a inflação são descabidas. Olivier Blanchard, antigo economista-chefe do FMI, que não se preocupa com possíveis efeitos inflacionistas, pronunciou-se para corrigir Schäuble. Philip Lane, economista-chefe do BCE, sugeriu que não há qualquer alarme em torno da inflação transitória resultante de estrangulamentos temporários do lado da oferta (em vez do sobreaquecimento da procura).
Além disso, uma despesa governamental muito reduzida pode aumentar as falências de empresas e levar a menos investimento em investigação e desenvolvimento, prejudicando o lado da oferta das nossas economias – potencialmente exacerbando as pressões inflacionistas.
A UE passou por uma década de estagnação da procura, com um desempenho muito abaixo do seu potencial produtivo. As forças inflacionistas da década de 1970 já não estão intactas, sobretudo devido ao declínio do poder de negociação do trabalho, às alterações demográficas, à elevada desigualdade e ao endividamento privado. Sem uma expansão orçamental concertada para aumentar o investimento e proteger os vulneráveis, a procura agregada permanecerá baixa e os padrões de vida estagnarão.
Em vez de fetichizar a disciplina orçamental, deveríamos dar prioridade a resultados sociais, económicos e ambientais mais importantes – como a criação de empregos verdes bem remunerados, a retirada de milhões da pobreza e a implementação de projetos de infraestruturas verdes.
Se há uma lição de John Maynard Keynes para Schäuble é “cuide do emprego, e o orçamento cuidará de si próprio”.
Assinam este texto,
Frank van Lerven – New Economics Foundation, London, UK
Adam Tooze – European Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY, US
Stephanie Kelton – Professor of Economics and Public Policy, Stony Brook University, New York, NY, US
Simon Wren-Lewis – Emeritus Professor of Economics, University of Oxford, UK
Daniela Gabor – University of the West of England, UK
Philippa Sigl-Glöckner – Dezernat Zukunft
Rob Johnson – President of the Institute for New Economic Thinking
Benjamin Braun – Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Shaheen Vallée – Director of the Geoeconomics Programme, DGAP
Philipp Heimberger – Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies
Dirk Bezemer – Professor, Faculty of Economics, University of Groningen
L Randall Wray – Senior Scholar, Levy Economics Institute
William H. Janeway – University of Cambridge
Rohan Grey – Willamette University College of Law
Jonathan Perraton – Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, UK
Dominik Leusder – London School of Economics
Christos Pierros – Senior Researcher, Labour Institute INE-GSEE, Athens Greece
Hanna Szymborska – Senior Lecturer in Economics, Birmingham City University UK
Jan Toporowski – SOAS University of London, Progressive Economy Forum
Steve Keen – Distinguished Research Fellow, University College London
Antoine Godin – Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, France
Michael Jacobs – Professor of Political Economy, University of Sheffield
Ronan Palmer – Director Clean Economy, E3G
Dirk Ehnts – Pufendorf-Gesellschaft Berlin e.V.
James Meadway – Director, Progressive Economy Forum
Sergio Cesaratto – Professor, Università di Siena, Italia
Rafael Wildauer – University of Greenwich
Daniele Tori – The Open University Business School
Andrew Watt – Macroeconomic Policy Institute, IMK
Neil Lancastle – Senior Lecturer, De Montfort University, Leicester, UK
Marco Veronese Passarella -Associate Professor, Link Campus University of Rome and Leeds University
Gracjan R. Bachurewicz – Edward Lipinsky Foundation, University of Warsaw
Andreas Maschke – University of Leeds
Ines Heck – University of Greenwich
José Pérez-Montiel – University of the Balearic Islands
Sue Konzelmann – Birkbeck, University of London, and Council Member, Progressive Economy Forum
Antoni Soy Casals University of Barcelona
Plamen Ivanov – Lecturer in Banking and Economics, University of Winchester
Thibault Laurentjoye – Associate researcher, Robert de Sorbon Foundation, Paris
Ewa Karwowski – Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Hertfordshire
Malcolm Sawyer – Emeritus Professor of Economics, University of Leeds
Biagio Bossone – International financial advisor, Rome, Italy
Benoît Lallemand – Finance Watch
Michael Vincent – Greentervention
Stanislas Jourdan – Positive Money Europe
Robert Calvert Jump – University of Greenwich
Nigel Dodd – London School of Economics and Political Science
Felix FitzRoy – University of St. Andrews
Avner Offer – University of Oxford
Andrw Sayer – Lancaster University
Jo Michell – UWE Bristol
Nina Eichacker – University of Rhode Island
Roberto Veneziani Queen Mary University of London
Jens van ‘t Klooster – KU Leuven
Imko Meyenburg – Senior Lecturer in Economics and International Business, Anglia Ruskin University
Cem Oyvat – University of Greenwich
Thiemo Fetzer – University of Warwick & London School of Economics and Political Science
Eckhard Hein – Professor, Berlin School of Economics and Law
Nikos Paltalidis – Associate Professor, Durham University Business School, Durham University
Wolfram Elsner – Professor of Economics, University of Bremen, Germany
Richard Murphy – Professor of Accounting, Sheffield University Management School
Engelbert Stockhammer – Professor, King’s College London
Roy J Rotheim – Skidmore College, New York
Ettore Gallo – The New School for Social Research
Paul Delaney – Positive Money
Bob Jessop Emeritus Professor of Sociology, Lancaster University
Alexander Guschanski – University of Greenwich
Trond Andresen – Associate professor, Department of Engineering Cybernetics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Rens van Tilburg – Sustainable Finance Lab
Joerg Bibow– Professor of Economics, Skidmore College
Ladislau Dowbor – Catholic University of São Paulo
Marco Missaglia – University of Pavia
Matthias Kroll – World Future Council
Mark Blyth – Brown University
Emanuele Citera – New School for Social Research
Laurence Scialom – Professor of Economics, University Paris Nanterre
Wojtek Kalinowski – Veblen Institute for Economic Reforms
Karl Naumann-Woleske – Ecole Polytechnique Paris
M Kerem Coban – Independent researcher
Rosaria Rita Canale – Università di Napoli “Parthenope”
Peter Blom– Co-chair of the Sustainable Finance Lab and former CEO Triodos Bank
Luis Reyes – Director of MSc Sustainable Finance at Kedge Business School
Abderrahim Taamouti – Professor at Durham Business School
Sara Stevano – SOAS University of London
Irene van Staveren – Erasmus University Rotterdam
Markus Marterbauer – Chief Economist, Chamber of Labour, Vienna
François Morin – University of Toulouse-Capitole
Sheila Dow – Emeritus Professor of Economics, University of Stirling
Carlos J Rodriguez-Fuentes – Reader in Economics, University of La Laguna
Jim Jin – University of St Andrews
Gabriele Pastrello – University of Trieste
Thomas Lagoarde-Segot – Professor of economics and finance, KEDGE BS & SDSN France
Dimitri Papadimitriou – President, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College
Umed Temursho – IOpedia, Spain
Gilbert Achcar – Professor, SOAS, University of London
Jean-François Ponsot – Professor of Economics, Pacte Univ. Grenoble Alpes, France
Mevlut Tatliyer – Istanbul Medipol University, Turkey
Ben Fine – School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London
Pia Malaney – Director, Center for Innovation, Growth and Society
Ewald Engelen – Professor of Financial Geography, University of Amsterdam
Sara Murawski – Sustainable Finance Lab and Alternative Trade coalition Netherlands
Wendy Brown – Class of 1936 Chair, Political Science, UC Berkeley
Jayati Ghosh Professor of Economics, University of Massachusetts at Amherst, USA
Yannis Dafermos – SOAS University of London
Nicolas Dufrêne – Director of the Institut Rousseau, France
Asker Voldsgaard – University College London
Muhammad Ali Nasir – University of Huddersfield
Eric Berr – University of Bordeaux
Fadhel Kaboub – Associate professor of economics, Denison University
Eve Chiapello – EHESS, France
Hielke Van Doorslaer – Ghent University
Mark Sanders – Professor of International Economics, Maastricht University
Elisa Van Waeyenberge – co-Head of Department, Economics, SOAS University of London
Alain Grandjean – Fondation Nicolas Hulot
Ollivier Bodin – Greentervention
Hans Schenk – Emeritus professor of economics and business, Utrecht University
Bruce Littleboy – retired, formerly University of Queensland
Luca Visentini – General Secretary, European Trade Union Confederation
Matthieu Méaulle – Associate member, PHARE/CNRS, University Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne
Luise Wimmler – University of Graz
Arjo Klamer – Emeritus professor of cultural economics, Erasmus University
Marc Lavoie – Emeritus Professor, University of Sorbonne Paris Nord
Jeremy Wates – Secretary General, European Environmental Bureau
Katy Wiese – Policy Officer, European Environmental Bureau
Carl Mühlbach – Chairman, FiscalFuture
Max Krahé, PhD – Dezernat Zukunft and Institute for Socio-Economics, University Duisburg-Essen
Andres Lazzarini – Lecturer, Goldsmiths University of London
Thorsten Beck – Professor, The Business School (formerly Cass), University of London, and European University Institute
Constantin Gurdgiev – Associate Professor of Finance, University of Northern Colorado, USA and Trinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland
Andy Denis – City, University of London
Maria Nikolaidi – Associate Professor in Economics, University of Greenwich
Thorvald Grung Moe – Research Associate, Levy Economics Institute
Nikolaos Karagiannis – Professor of Economics, Winston-Salem State University, North Carolina, USA
Alberto Botta – Senior lecturer in Economics, University of Greenwich
Karl Petrick – Associate Professor of Economics, Western New England University
Antonio Fatas – Insead
George Evans – Professor of Economics, University of Oregon, and part-time Professor, University of St Andrews
David Cobham – Professor of Economics, Heriot-Watt University
Dimitri Zenghelis – Senior Visiting Fellow, London School of Economics
Andrew Jackson – University of Surrey
Jumana Saleheen – Chief Economist, CRU Group
Greg Hannsgen – Blogger and Economist, Greg Hannsgen’s Economics Blog